Saturday, January 23, 2010

Is The Recession Over???

Don't count on the recession being over just yet. We have been hearing about job losses slowing down, factory orders being up, housing sales starting to take off and the stock market chugging away ... but all this can end quickly.

Unemployment always goes down in December, as many retailers hire temporary workers for the Christmas Season. These workers are then let go in January after the sales are over.

Factory orders are up, being led by orders for cars. New car inventories were depleted by the "cash for clunkers" program, and once inventories are replenished, these orders will fall.

Housing sales were bolstered by the $8000.00 tax credit that new homeowners were given last year. Even though the credit has been extended, most of those that were in the market already purchased, and we should see a fall in housing sales.

The stock market is on a high after many companies reported huge earnings. These companies are front-loading their profit and earnings statements because the fear is that taxes will go up next year and they want to report earnings before any new tax rates set in. Wall Street will come to this conclusion fairly soon and the market will over-react, wiping out most of the recent gains.

President Obama will continue to make banks, financial institutions and big corporations his scape-goats, exasperating a hatred between the common investor and the companies that need their capital.

I'm not an economist, but this seems to be a recipe for a double-dip recession.

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JMK said...

Bad policies always deliver bad results.

We had an almost decade and a half run of unmitigated Keynesianism from 1964 thru 1980, culminating in the REAL "worst U.S. economy since the Great Depression" - Jimmy Carter's STAGFLATION (double digit interest, inflation and unemployment rates) and the highest single year Misery Index since the Great Depression...21 in 1980, Carter's last year!

We're on that same road again, only this time we're taking it at warp speed...and heading toward a cliff.

Debbie said...

It was predictable how the stock market plummeted after Obama's announcement about taxing the banks and basically telling them what they can and can't do. No the financial problems are not over by a long shot.

Too bad for everyone.

People are weird though. One example: A woman I know got fired from her job, finally got unemployment payments started. Her next statement: Now I can get pregnant, have the baby and stay at home with it for a while......

That is one of the problems.

Right Truth

Anonymous said...

Let me check my wallet. Nope, it's not over.

WomanHonorThyself said...

lol Nickie..good post Paul but Hussein will stablilize nothing! Ahhh Happy Sunday my friend!:)

Tapline said...

Paul, He has no experience and those who surround him are progressives when will our Congress wake up and smell the coffee while we still are able to buy some.....stay well.....

Amusing Bunni said...

The recession is FAR from over, it will be double dip, and probably even triple dip, if these jerks aren't reigned in.

Paul, I have found your blog now, and I'm following you! Great work, thanks for commenting over my way too!