Saturday, September 22, 2007

Is Iran Just Posturing ... Or Could They Attack Israel?



Last week, Iran warned Israel that if their nuclear facilities were attacked, they would bomb Israel. I figured from the start that it was just a lot of hot air, and that the Iranian Air Force was in such bad shape that there was no way they could launch a successful attack on the most powerful nation in the Middle East. Before I went posting about this, I wanted to be sure. So, I did a little research, which led to a lot of research, which made me change my mind. This is a serious threat to Israel and should be taken as such.
We all know that until the late 70's, the Shah of Iran was a good friend of the United States and we considered Iran as a stabilizing force in the Mid-East. We considered them such a power for peace that we decided to sell them 79 F-14 Tomcats (this is the plane Tom Cruise made famous in the Movie "Top Gun"). Now, this was a long time ago, and we stopped selling replacement parts to the Ayatollah back in 1980. In fact, during the Iraq-Iran war, only 10 of these planes were still operational. In a perfect world, all of the planes would by now be in the trash heap. Seems however that a Dutch Business man (you may insert arms-dealer here), Robert Kraaipoel has been violating the embargo by selling spare aircraft parts to Iran. As many as 50 of these F-14's may now be operational. The F-14 can carry 4-500 lb bombs on it's underbelly, and if it's wing mounted missiles are removed, another 2 can be mounted on each wing. That's 200,000 pounds of bombs for those of you who are keeping count.
In addition, at the start of the first Gulf War, Iraq flew 115 combat aircraft to Iran to protect them from being destroyed by the US Air Force. Among these were 24 Mirage F-1B fighter jets, along with some MIG-23's and SU-25's. In 2003, Iran was able to purchase an unknown number of new Su-25 Frogfoots. Other aircraft include 10 F-8M's, 7 TU-22M's, 19 MIG-27's and several MIG-31's (Russia's most advanced fighter ... thank you Mr. Putin).
As for missile forces, The Iranians have SCUD C & D's (can't reach Israel with those) and the Shahab-3D (with a range of 2200 km that can hit Israel). The also have the Farq-3 which is a ballistic MIRV missile that can hit Israel (and probably parts of Europe.
After reading about all this air and missile power, I was going to post that Israel had nothing to worry about. The Israeli Air Force is easily the best Air Force in the region ... probably second only to the USAF in the world. They could surely shoot down any and all aircraft that Iran wanted to send their way. As for the missiles, well those Patriot missile batteries that we sold to Israel during the first Gulf War are still there ... In addition, Israel has developed its' own interceptor missile called the Arrow ("Til Hetz"). After Iran tested their Shahab-3 missile in the summer of 2006, Israel tested their Arrow Interceptor by successfully shooting down ... you guessed it, a Shahab-3 missile.
So here I am, ready to post about Iran not being able to hurt Israel when I come across an article in Jane's Defence Weekly that changes everything. Jane's reported that the July 26th explosion in Syria took place at a joint Iranian-Syrian site. The project was to fit a Scud C missile with a mustard gas warhead. The explosion happened when the missile fuel caught fire. The blast dispersed mustard gas across the storage site and outside the facility. The blast killed 15 Syrian military members and injured at least 50. Dozens of Iranian engineers were also killed in the blast. Mustard gas is some really bad stuff. There are still parts of Germany that are off-limits because of the mustard gas that the Kaiser ordered used during WWI. Mustard gas (Yperite) is a blister agent (the chemical causes blisters to form on exposed skin greatly hampering combat effectiveness. In addition, those that get it in the eyes will be permanently blinded, and those that inhale it will almost certainly die). The mustard gas attacks the bronchial tubes, stripping off the mucous membrane ... causing internal bleeding and eventually (it usually takes four or five very painful weeks) the victims would drown on their own blood.
If Iraq were to attack from Syria with mustard gas, the casualties would be incomprehensible. Israel would almost definitely retaliate with their Jericho ballistic missiles (nuclear) and the whole region would begin to glow. Iraq needs to be stopped from producing nuclear weapons, and it needs to be stopped by the Western World in toto. We can not diddle around thinking that if worst comes to worst, Israel will handle it ... we may not like the outcome.

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17 comments:

In_spired said...

Well, thank goodness for people like you who do the research or people like me would never know diddley-squat about anything! I can now say with authority that Iran isn't playing hanky-panky with Israel. How do I know? I learned it on The Blogway Boys!

Thanks Paul for another informative post!

snowelf said...

hahaha! I love in_spired comment! That is SO true!

And yikes! That is a lot of meaty air-power!

--snow

The Lowest Rated Blog said...

Our friend ISRAEL

It is going to be real ugly if there is a massive attack on the only country I consider our friend in the Middle East [Israel]. Last June I wrote about all the nukes on this planet. We have nine countries with a total of 26,000 nuclear warheads. This includes more than 8,000 strategic weapons operational and READY FOR USE on short notice. ISRAEL is armed and dangerous, with a total of 80 strategic nukes, and their targets are every large Arab city [including the holy city of MECCA] and the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. ISRAEL is not going down without a good fight [a nuke fight that is]. We [as in USofA] have old business to settle with IRAN - I do remember the hostages - and hopefully we will take care of business before it is too late. Oh by the way, I did time in GONZO STATION during the hostage crisis. Have a fine TEXAS evening.

cfs

Debbie said...

Mustard gas is nasty stuff. We don't need chemical weapons, biological weapons or nuclear weapons while our guys/gals are anywhere in the region. Iran must be stopped, but 1/2 of America is so PC and afraid they might offend somebody, they won't even defend this country. Israel may have to do this, with technical/intelligence/etc. help from the US.

To answer your question/title: YES to both.

(p.s. I think you meant to say Iran, rather than Iran in your last couple of sentences. If I'm wrong, sorry.)

WomanHonorThyself said...

hiya Paul...watch the IDF nuke them boys to Kingdom come..Jew haters and freedom haters deserve a nice trip eh!

American Interests said...

"Is Iran just ... or could they attack Israel?"

They could but do not, for one moment underestimate Israel.

They're onto it; finger on the pulse stuff. They will not be surprised. Any move against them will be met with massive action.

How do I know?

....trust me!

http://americasinterests.blogspot.com/

buffalodickdy said...

Israel can handle them. How much octane is in radioactive oil?

Paul Champagne said...

inspired ... I did the research because even I was unsure ... in fact, this info is so hard to find that I still am not 100%. Just wish that chemical weapons weren't involved.

snow ... that airpower is nothing compared with what Israel can muster ... not worried at all about the aircraft, but I am worried about the mustard gas. During the first Gulf War, all Israeli citizens were issued gas masks. But that was in 1991, I hope they kept up the maintenance on them.

tlrb ... GONZO station, must have been fun (late nights partying ... jk). I too consider Israel as out only friend in the Mid-east, though Kuwait is pretty close. Saudi Arabia is not our friend.

debbie ... you're right, I meant to say Iran, but in my defense, You got confused in your comment too "I think you meant to say Iran instead of Iran in your last couple of sentances". It would have been less complicated if Iran had remained Persia.

woman ... the IDF is capable, the question is when will they feel it is neccesary to unleah the Jericho missiles.

interests ... there is a great deal of uncertainty in dealing with all the countries of the Middle East (Isreal too). Unless you are a senior Mossad Commander, you probably don't know for sure. The problem is SCUDs with chemical weapons aboard. The Israeli missile forces can probably shoot most of them down ... that being said, the missiles used to shoot down aircraft and other missiles have a proximity fuse and blow up near the enemy missile and bring it down. This does nothing to prevent chemical agents from spreading into the atmosphere. They just need to get one of these close to Tel Aviv or Jerusalem to cause untold casualties. I hope you're right and Israel has nothing to worry about ... but I think I will say a little prayer for "God's chosen people" anyway.

buffalo ... don't know what the octane rating is in glowing oil ... bet it packs a punch though.

TRUTH-PAIN said...

First, Kudos on your site. It's not everyday I come to a place where the first posting I read is cleverly written, concise and with good balance of facts and opinions. I happened to catch some of your comments at other blogs and came over the see for myself. I am happy I did.
I hope to host you at my page as well.
cheers!

Superstar said...

Did you see the Dateline interview last night?!?!?!
ALL about the bomb and this post!
~shakes head~
Scary stuff

MONA said...

You empower them for your profits and then you fear them for those very empowerments and set to set them right...

Ironic.

jillie said...

in_spired couldn't have said it any better!!

What ever happens...it's ALL scarey shit to me!

Tapline said...

Paul,
I have been away for a period. back now for a week or so.....This is an excellent post. I agree with your last part especially, Something must be done about this threat However our president and his entire cabinet has been neutered or resigned under fire. When he offered no constructive comment about the Iranian visitor giving a propigander speech welcomed and applauded at Columbia University in the name of free speech. Something is definately smelly around DC. Our military is being murdered by this man and we, as Americans applauded. When is enough, enough,,,, This is appauling, providing a platform for this murderer is tantimount to sedition...Too bad this is still not a crime, However Treason is, but the definition has changed over the years, I do not know what would be considered treasonous today. Someone with some Gonads need to step up and be counted. The only problem is that the media is only steps away from this same charge, so they wouldn't print it if it were true (especially if it is true). I ramble, stay well.....

Paul Champagne said...

truth-pain ... thank you, flattery will get you everywhere.

bambi ... no, missed the show, but scary stuff is right.

mona ... empowered them? ... perhaps, but we help out our friends ... and at that time, the Shah was our friend.

jillie ... we can all take comfort in the fact that there are smarter people than we (in the government) working on these problems as we speak. I can't believe I just said that ... gee I wish it were true.

tapline ... unfortunately as long as we have the United Nations headquartered in NYC, we will have to put up with these petty despots making their annual pilgramage to spew their hate. On a positive note, having the UN here puts a positive spin on the USA when other world leaders come and visit the greatest city in the world.
Welcome Back

DD2 said...

You did a Really great job with this Payl.
Thanks for the good work

Terri@SteelMagnolia said...

As usual...
I love your posts..
you're awesome.


All I can say is:
ohhhh boy .... *shakes head*

Better go now.. just wanted to pop in while the kiddo was down.

Mike M said...

Israel has the Bomb and will use it if necessary. Iran is not such a big threat as of yet. Once reason they haven't tried to do any of this bad stuff is they know Israel will fight back with everything it has, including American support.